Angels Countdown to Spring - 20 Days

By Jay Sheehy

There are always golden numbers that help show why teams are successful over any given season. Whether it be team OBP, quality starts or bullpen ERA, some stats seem to be a heavy weight in the formula that is winning. The Los Angeles Angels have had difficulty keeping pitchers healthy over the last…decade? it would seem at this point. In keeping the staff relatively healthy in 2020, which should be aided by the workhorse acquisitions of Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran, the Angels should be able to cover a decent amount of innings with their more talented pitchers. This hasn’t been the case lately and it definitely wasn’t the case in 2019.

Reason #20: The # of Angels pitchers who threw at least 25 Innings in 2019

The 20th reason the Los Angeles Angels will make the playoffs in 2020 is based upon the fact that they will not repeat 2019, where they had 20 pitchers throw at least 25 innings AND only SIX who had a ERA+ that was league average. To compare, here were the playoff teams from 2019 and their ratio of pitchers with 25 innings and a league average ERA+ or better (100 or better).

Hansel Robles: Angels team leader with a 184 ERA+

Washington: 16 overall; 11 league average
Houston: 15 overall, 11 league average
New York (AL): 16 overall; 10 league average
St. Louis: 15 overall; 12 league average
Minnesota: 17 overall: 13 league average
Tampa Bay: 18 overall; 15 league average
Oakland: 17 overall; 12 league average
Los Angeles (NL): 16 overall; 13 league average
Atlanta: 15 overall; 11 league average
Milwaukee: 16 overall; 11 league average

Playoff Average: 16.1 overall; 11.9 league average
Los Angeles Angels: 20 overall; 6 league average
So, that’s a problem.

The solutions, however, are more nuanced than just acquiring different pitchers. First off, two of the pitchers are no longer with the organization. Tyler Skaggs (106 ERA+) tragically passed away during last season. Luis Garcia (104 ERA+) has moved on as a member of the Texas Rangers. Hansel Robles (184), Cam Bedrosian (141), Ty Buttrey (114) and Noe Ramirez (114) all return and their contributions should be similar to 2019, if not better in Buttrey’s case. The off-season acquisitions of Dylan Bundy (99 ERA+…though my article about him explains why I think this will greatly improve), Julio Teheran (119 ERA+) and Matt Andriese (95 ERA+…eh) seem to stabilize the rotation more than raise the ceiling, though Teheran giving the Angels 180+ innings is truly a worthy addition. There’s no reason to mention the Parker Markel, Mike Mayers and Kyle Keller additions based upon what they accomplished last season in the majors (well, Keller had a 3.38 ERA over 10.2 innings) but these type of gambles are definitely worthwhile so long as the Angels are willing to accept if and when they don’t hit. Keller is definitely interesting.

Why will it be better than last year then, you ask?

Shohei Ohtani: Even if he only throws 120ish innings, Ohtani has ace-level talent and his return to pitching is a huge boost to the Angels rotation. He had a 127 ERA+ in 2018. Now he’s been around the American game for two seasons, he knows the players, he understands what he can and cannot do. Plus, he’s had a season to learn without playing, something that will prove beneficial to his preparation. Ohtani might end up being the Ace we didn’t acquire this off-season…because we already had him.

The kids: Griffin Canning (99 ERA+), Patrick Sandoval (91 ERA+), Jaime Barria (71 ERA+) and Jose Suarez (64 ERA+). Canning has already proved that he’s going to be a solid mid-rotation starter for years to come. He has poise, intelligence and command that belies his youth and inexperience. Pencil him in for a 110+ in 2020. Sandoval also showed an uncanny ability to miss bats (9.6 K/9) with only his 4.3 BB/9 truly holding him back. He will also make the ascension to league average or better, though he starts the season most likely out of the rotation. Jaime Barria never found his footing in 2020, being bounced back and forth between the Angels and Triple-A, but he did produce a 123 ERA+ as a rookie in 2018 (though his peripherals spoke to regression). While that 123 ERA+ might be a bit high, league average is definitely within his grasp in 2020, though he also does not look to be in the running for the opening day rotation. Lastly, Jose Suarez has guile and though he was often over-matched in 2019, it was an experience that he will learn from that will make him a better pitcher. While he will spend most of the season in Triple-A unless the injury bug hits again, his spot starts will be far superior to his 2019 outings.

Lastly, the Angels will be healthier. While this isn’t based on any concrete data it would seem that the law of averages would eventually balance out and the Angels would have a season where every pitcher doesn’t go on the Injured List. A full season of Andrew Heaney (though he needs a bounce-back season as well), Keynan Middleton, and the rest of the pitching staff would mean that their team leader in innings won’t be a guy with 102.1 innings like it was in 2019 (especially when that guy has a 5.98 ERA- Goodbye, Trevor Cahill). Ohtani will throw a hundred innings. Heaney will throw a hundred innings. Teheran and Bundy will throw a hundred innings. Canning will throw a hundred innings. I’m putting it out into the universe.

And when they all throw a hundred innings in 2020, the Angels won’t require twenty pitchers to throw at least 25 innings. They’ll look more like a playoff team where only 15 or 16 will hit that number. They’ll look that way, because they’ll be a playoff team (putting that out into the universe every chance I get; it’s like the lottery, the more you play the better the chances…even if the chances are basically zero).