Free Agency, Part 2: When the Levee Breaks
12/12/19 - Jay Sheehy - Founder and Editor-In-Chief
Wow. What a difference three days can make. I’m going to put the deep-dive Dylan Bundy on hold while we sift through what just happened in America’s pastime. The Winter Meetings in 2019- where the floodgates opened and the money game pouring out leading to game-changing moves that have altered the landscape of power in the American League while throwing trade rumors into hyperdrive.
What happened, you ask?
Didi Gregorius signed a one year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies for $14 million.
Tanner Roark signed a two year deal with the Toronto Blue Jays for $24 million.
Blake Treinen signed a one year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers for $10 million.
Kevin Gausman signed a one year deal with the San Francisco Giants for $9 million.
Michael Wacha signed a one year deal with the New York Mets for $3 million.
Crazy, right? Wait, this isn’t what you thought I meant? You want to hear about Gerrit Cole? What, that’s he’s an amazing baseball player? No, about his contract? Oh, that’s right because he signed with the motherlovin’ NEW YORK YANKEES for 9 years…and $324 MILLION DOLLARS!! I’ve conducted a quick informal straw poll and nobody in the world outside of New York is happy about this. No one. Not a single person. BUT, people in Southern California are absolutely devastated by it, akin to a family member (not one that they are too close with) finding out they have stage one cancer.
The Angels had the worst starting rotation in baseball in 2019.
Gerrit Cole was the best starting pitcher in baseball in 2019.
The Angels play home games in Anaheim, California.
Gerrit Cole went to high school at Orange Lutheran in Orange, California; the school is a mere 5.1 miles from Angels Stadium.
He played college baseball at UCLA, after being drafted in the first round by the New York Yankees…and turning them down. This wasn’t how this was supposed to play out.
Unfortunately, nine year deals for starting pitchers are difficult to make. Paying a starter $36 million dollars a year, $108 million total, from in their Age 35-37 seasons is downright terrifying. But, some of them can do it. The special class of starting pitcher can be great at that age.
Greg Maddux: 104 starts, 49-28, 3.22 ERA (134 ERA+), 650.2 IP, 1.143 WHIP
Randy Johnson: 104 starts, 57-22, 2.54 ERA (184 ERA+), 770 IP, 1.048 WHIP
THREE STRAIGHT CY YOUNG AWARDS!!! (He would get a fourth as a 38-year old)
Roger Clemens: 95 starts, 47-24, 3.58 ERA (132 ERA+), 626.2 IP, 1.277 WHIP
Won Cy Young as a 35-year old (and as a 38-year old…and a 41-year old. Obviously, there are questions about how he did it, but he did it none the less).
Even if we look at his contemporary, ex-teammate Justin Verlander, we see a similar pitcher who has evolved and dominated in his Age-35 and Age-36 seasons.
Justin Verlander: 68 starts, 37-15, 2.55 ERA (172 ERA+), 437 IP (this looks incredibly insignificant next to Maddux and Clemens, and completely unfathomable next to The Big Unit’s innings total), and lastly a microscopic 0.851 WHIP. Verlander also won a Cy Young Award this year in his Age-36 season (though it should have been Cole’s).
Is this the likely course of Gerrit Cole’s career? Maybe not. Yet, it would have been worth the gamble for the Angels if they were going to spend nearly the same amount over the next seven seasons anyway. Oh, that leads us to this:
Anthony Rendon signed with the Los Angeles Angels for $245 million over seven years.
I’d like to preface what I’m going to say with this: Rendon is an incredible baseball player who is worth every penny he received in his newly signed contract. While his defense isn’t all-world his offense more than makes up for it and he is a proven winner. His signing also creates usable trade chips in La Stella, Fletcher and Rengifo because they all will play less than they did in 2019 with Rendon manning the hot corner everyday. Or, at least two of them will play much less.
With all of that being said, I still believe the Angels were wrong to spend that money on a third baseman. Sure, they didn’t get the greatest production from the position (ranked 22nd in baseball, according to Baseball Reference positional rankings), but they had young guys who could man the position and continue to progress. In particular, David Fletcher, who was a gold glove finalist, had a .350 OBP and will only get better if he plays there everyday from here on out. While baseball pundits are slapping the Angels on the back for signing such an amazing player (after they missed out on Cole) it does little to remedy what remains their biggest issue.
THEY STILL HAVE THE WORST STARTING ROTATION IN BASEBALL!!!
Okay, i’ll quiet down, but they also have the worst catching tandem in baseball. They just spent $35 million a year for the next seven and they didn’t improve their biggest issues. Or even their second biggest need. Now, there is still time in the offseason to grab a pitcher or two, but not a Gerrit Cole. Even if the Corey Kluber trade rumors are true, they will have to give up significant depth to acquire him. AND, Kluber was hurt for the majority of 2019 AND NOT the best pitcher on the planet. He’s also 33 years old (he’ll be 34 in April). There are some red flags with his acquisition.
They could also be making a move to acquire a catcher, with Willson Contreras coming up in the majority of rumors on that front, but again they will have to part with organizational depth that is only finally coming back after a decade of depletion. Contreras and Kluber might be worth it, but it also wouldn’t hurt to sign a Jason Castro or Martin Maldonado in case those things don’t pan out. All they would cost is $5 million a year (or less) and then the Stassi/Bemboom combo can be erased from the memory of Angels fans everywhere.
One other thing to note is the Zack Cozart trade to San Francisco. To get his $12.167 million off the books for 2020, the Angels sent along 2019 first round pick, Will Wilson (SS/2B) to the Giants. This was directly related to securing money to sign Rendon (or, Cole). An unfortunate necessity I guess, though giving away your first round pick less than a year later seems to be a misuse of organizational depth. Basically, the Giants bought a prospect as Cozart doesn’t look to get much playing time there with Longoria and Crawford manning his two positions. Either way, fast-moving college shortstops who have some pop are hard to come by. This is the kind of thing that gets brought up in two years when Will Wilson is starting for the Giants at third base and wins Rookie of the Year…while making $575,000 compared to Rendon’s $35 million. You’d better know what you’re doing, Billy.