The Angels 2021 Offseason Checklist, Pt. 3
By Jay Sheehy
Reading time: The rest of your week. Seriously.
In Part One of the Los Angeles Angels 2021 offseason checklist, we went over the importance of keeping the team salary aligned with past seasons. We also looked into some interesting numbers regarding the starting rotation. In Part Two, the bullpen, middle infield and catching depth were addressed. This put the Angels 2021 offseason checklist at five things. That’s it. Seems simple, right? Now, we will explore the multitude of directions the new front office can take so that GM Perry Minasian doesn’t suffer the same fate as his predecessors: Fired. Thus begins YEAR 28 (basically) of Operation Get Mike Trout to the Playoffs.
IMPORTANT DATES
December 10: Rule 5 Draft. The Angels might look to acquire a bullpen piece during the draft. Also, they might lose Packy Naughton, Oliver Ortega, or Jose Soriano.
January 15: deadline to decide on arbitration salary figures before arbitration begins in February. This year, it’s also the beginning of the international signing period. While that might get fans excited for some teams, the Angels only seem to be in on the #28 ranked player, 16-year-old shortstop Denzer Guzman, out of the Dominican Republic.
The arbitration process goes from February 1-19. Since the Angels have until January 15th to sign arbitration eligible players it is impossible to know which, if any player will go through arbitration.
ANGELS 2021 OFFSEASON CHECKLIST:
#1 - Keep the team salary in the $175 million range for the 2021 season.
#2 - Acquire a quality starting pitcher (or two)
a. Do NOT sign Trevor Bauer
b. Do NOT sell out the farm
#3 - Improve the Bullpen, starting with a Closer
#4 - Get a shortstop!
#5 - Improve catching depth
Oh, the Angels traded for a shortstop? Yes, the team traded two minor league pitchers for Jose Iglesias of the Baltimore Orioles. Technically, that crosses #4 off the list of the Angels 2021 offseason checklist. Or does it?
And now they’ve acquired Raisel Iglesias from the Cincinnati Reds? Okay, Mr. Minasian, it looks like you are taking this roster rebuild very seriously. This is starting to get fun. But, we’ll get to what those moves mean for the Angels 2021 Offseason Checklist.
Keep team salary in $175 million range
Okay, this is obviously the background musician part of the checklist. While #2 through #5 will be the big moves with the splashy names, #1 will be there stopping the Angels from signing every player they need. Jose Iglesias makes $3.5 million in 2021. Raisel Iglesias is slated to make $9.125 million, though the deal includes cash being sent from Cincinnati. How much? Well, that’s a good question. Plus, that eliminates Noe Ramirez’s $1.1 million salary projection. The $146.9 million number we settled on in Part One has moved (I realized it was off by $900k since Scott Schebler’s contract was fully guaranteed). Take it all into account and the new Angels roster salary (estimate) is $159.3 million. Random guess: the Reds pay the Angels $2 million to complete the trade, which makes it likely that they get a decent prospect in return. Anything more than that and the Angels are going to be giving up one of their Top-10 prospects. No bueno.
UPDATED TEAM SALARY: $157.3 million
Acquire a starting pitcher (or two)
This part of the Angels 2021 offseason checklist comes with two amendments: Don’t sign Trevor Bauer and don’t sell out the farm. Simple enough, right? Another important thing to remember is that Shohei Ohtani will be back on the mound in 2021. Yet, the Angels should act if that wasn’t the case. Why? Because he’s only thrown 53.1 innings since he signed with the Angels before the 2018 season. If he’s healthy and able to pitch, fantastic. But, if the Angels move forward assuming that will be the case they will be in trouble.
The Project: Carlos rodon
Carlos Rodon, who turns 28 in a few days, is a great buy-low candidate. For starters, he’s a lefty. Therefore, he could be moved to a swing man role if the Angels rotation improves enough to push him out. Remember, the bullpen needs help as well. Yes, he had a terrible 2020. And his last three seasons have been very up and down. But Rodon has a career 4.14 ERA and pitching coach Mickey Callaway might just be able to pull out the talent that made Rodon the #3 pick in the 2014 MLB Draft. Lastly, Rodon will likely be looking for a one-year deal to reset his value.
OFFER: One year, $3.5 million
ALTERNATE: Anthony DeSclafani
UPDATED TEAM SALARY: $160.8 million
The homecoming: Garrett Richards
Garrett Richards, come on down. While not quite the buy-low candidate that Rodon is, Richards actually pitched pretty well in 2020. Actually, he’s always pitched pretty well (except for three game sample in 2019) but he just can’t seem to stay healthy. Nonetheless, the Angels would be over the moon if he could throw 25ish games with the 4.03 ERA he had in 2020. Plus, they will get some more of the Trout/Richards shenanigans of the past. Simply put, if the Angels started Richards ten times in 2020 instead of Julio Teheran (and Jose Suarez or Matt Andriese), it would have made the team two wins better…they missed the Playoffs by three.
OFFER: One year, $8 million w/team option for $10 million ($750K buyout)
ALTERNATE: Matt Shoemaker - This actually works too. Probably wouldn’t give Shoe the 2nd year though.
UPDATED TEAM SALARY: $168.8 million
TRADE options
BLAKE SNELL: Turned 28 on December 4th. Contract runs through 2023, and totals $40.8 million.
- Is Snell the Cy Young winner from 2018? Or, is he the guy who has average UNDER FIVE INNINGS A START in his other 77 career starts? Since his Cy Young season, Snell has thrown 157 innings over 34 starts. Do you really want to sell the farm for that? Or, is this simply a case of the Tampa Bay Rays not using him correctly? After all, they pulled him in Game 6 of the World Series when he was in cruise control.
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE: More than THIS. If this hypothetical was all it took to get Snell, the Angels would pull the trigger immediately. If that’s the starting point, then I would say the Angels would need to add one or two more players. Maybe someone with a low ceiling but who could move fast, like Adam Seminaris. And a deep flyer, like Jose Bonilla or Adrian Placencia. Too much? Eh, pitcher’s with a career 3.24 ERA, who are locked up for three more seasons at a discount rate are pretty hard to come by. And, they usually cost $30 million per season in free agency.
SHOULD THEY DO IT? While the Angels 2021 Offseason Checklist #2 is pitching, amendment B says they shouldn’t sell out the farm. THIS would require them to sell out the farm. Angels should PASS on Blake Snell.
GERMAN MARQUEZ: Turns 26 in February. Contract runs through 2024, and totals $50.4 million, with the final year being a team option.
- Like the deep dive on Dylan Bundy showed, some pitchers only need a change in venue to show their true talent. This is especially true of pitchers who toe the rubber at Coors Field.
- Marquez is already a very good pitcher, he would thrive in Angel Stadium. Think “Ace” level work.
- If it seems like Marquez is unavailable because of the positives, remember that we are talking about the Colorado Rockies. If Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story are on the trade block then everyone else probably is as well.
- The cherry on top for Colorado is they have one of the worst farm systems in baseball. If they decide to start over they will be able to jump start their rebuild by trading Marquez.
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE: Very similar to the Snell pieces from the MLB.com article: Brandon Marsh, D’Shawn Knowles and Jahmai Jones.
SHOULD THEY DO IT? Forget Amendment B, I would do this in a heartbeat. HARD YES. Would Colorado? Harder to say. If it took another depth piece (Matt Thaiss?) or long-term gamble (Jose Bonilla?) I would still do it. Marquez is a game-changer. And he’s young. And he puts in work.
YU DARVISH: Turns 35 next August. Contract runs through 2023; totals $59 million.
- Darvish finished 2nd in the NL Cy Young vote in 2020, behind Trevor Bauer.
- Since July 12, 2019: 25 Starts, 157.2 IP, 118 H, 42 ER, 21 BB, 211 K, 7 HBP
2.40 ERA, 0.926 WHIP, 12.04 K/9, 10.05 K/BB
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE: That depends on the new man in charge, Jed Hoyer. The Cubs just non-tendered Kyle Schwarber. They didn’t re-sign Jon Lester. And Kris Bryant has been on the trade block seemingly forever. So it would make sense that they would try to trade Darvish. BUT, he has trade protections. He can block a deal to 12 teams. If they Angels aren’t one of them there are two options for this trade. One, the Angels give up a decent amount and pay Darvish’s full salary. Jordyn Adams or Jeremiah Jackson would be a good enough headliner for this trade. Or, the Cubs pay part of his salary and the Angels give up Reid Detmers or maybe even Brandon Marsh.
SHOULD THEY DO IT? Yes, if they are willing to pay his salary. The Angels shouldn’t move Adell, Marsh or Detmers in a trade for Darvish. They should be willing to risk Adams, who essentially has nowhere to play in Anaheim for the foreseeable future. Tack on either Kyren Paris or Arol Vera and a lower end pitching prospect like Robinson Pina, and this should be a done deal.
SONNY GRAY: He turned 31 in November. Contract runs through 2023; totals $33.33 million (3rd year is a $12m TO)
- He pitched pretty well in 2020, has a career 3.54 ERA, and pitches for a club that seems intent on lowering payroll before next season. The Angels already acquired his ex-teammate in a trade, is Gray next?
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE: Unlike Snell, Marquez and Darvish, Gray doesn’t have that 5th gear, so to speak. The Oakland A’s Sonny Gray (first three years) is seemingly gone. For the Angels, that means very little. Gray would be an excellent addition to their rotation for the next three seasons. AND, it wouldn’t take Adell or Marsh to headline the deal. Not with the way the Reds dumped Iglesias. Would the Angels trade Reid Detmers for Gray? This also seems unlikely, but not impossible. Gray is a known quantity. So although Detmers was a first round pick in 2020, his success at the big league level is hardly a given. Let’s say the Angels are willing to part with him either. Would Cincinnati accept super athlete Jordyn Adams, Jahmai Jones or Luis Rengifo, and Oliver Ortega (or, fittingly enough, Packy Naughton)? Normally, maybe not. But if the Angels were willing to pay Gray’s whole salary I think that would definitely get the deal done in the 2020 financial landscape.
WOULD I DO IT? To recap, Snell was a PASS. Marquez was a HARD YES. Darvish was a YES at the right price. Gray is also a YES at the right price. Like Darvish, it would be worth it for the Angels to give up Jordyn Adams to secure a solid pitcher for their rotation.
Because one team cannot make a trade happen, these options were unveiled in the guise of providing options to grab a stellar starting pitcher. Since 2020 follows such a turbulent season financially, the Angels might be able to buy-low in trades where they pay the heavy majority of the contracts they receive. If Arte Moreno is open to this then the Angels have a much better chance of making the playoffs in 2021.
improve bullpen (starting with a closer)
Well, this part of the list just got easier with the trade for Raisel Iglesias. If Mike Mayers can pitch anywhere close to as well as he did in 2020, over a full season, then there’s another 7th/8th inning guy. Ty Buttrey needs to bounce back but he’s in the mix for the 6th and 7th innings. Felix Pena is their long reliever, and a good one. He can be counted on to do whatever is necessary. With the signing of Carlos Rodon, either he or Patrick Sandoval will slide down to the bullpen giving the Angels a lefty there. It could even be both if Richards and Barria snag the last two spots in the rotation. The best case scenario would be blockbuster trade for one of the starting pitchers above which would then push Barria or Richards into the bullpen as well.
Even without the trade, the Angels now have SEVEN non-Ohtani starting pitchers. That’s the depth they need to stay competitive over a full season (because staying healthy just doesn’t happen to Anaheim starting pitchers anymore). With all that being said, the Angels still need to sign one more reliever. They can’t go into the season trying to figure out their late game hierarchy, losing important games in April while they learn what works. The Iglesias trade seems likely to remove them from Hendriks/Hand type money. So, the Angels should look to sign one or two of the following pitchers: Trevor Rosenthal, Greg Holland and Jake McGee.
Trevor Rosenthal: 31 in May. 1.90 ERA over 23.2 IP in 2020. Has thrown less than 100 IP since the beginning of 2017, with a 4.78 ERA over that time. Current estimates have Rosenthal receiving a 2yr/$15 million deal. If it falls closer to $6 million per year the Angels should jump at the chance. Otherwise, they should move on.
Greg Holland: Turns 36 in November. 1.91 ERA over 28.1 IP in 2020. A great one-year deal guy, the Angels should be willing to spend $4 million on a pitcher who has thrived during his career while pitching in the American League.
Jake McGee: Turns 35 in August. The Colorado debacle is behind him. He had a 2.66 ERA over 20.1 IP in 2020. His FIP was even better at 1.67. His age might allow the Angels to sign him to a one-year deal with a team option for year two. Plus, he’s a lefty who is a career reliever- something the Angels don’t currently have. He should be even cheaper than Holland.
SIGN GREG HOLLAND:
OFFER: One year, $4 million
ALTERNATE: Jake McGee
UPDATED TEAM SALARY: $172.8 million
get a shortstop
The Angels 2021 offseason checklist marked this as done with the acquisition of Jose Iglesias. But, there is another move to be made here. While most of the baseball world is chomping at the bit for the 2021 shortstop free agent class, the Angels should remove themselves from it by STILL signing Ha-Seong Kim from the Kiwoom Heroes. While there’s no indication of where Kim wants to play, he did just dine with Toronto Blue Jays pitcher, and ex-KBO star, Hyun-Jin Ryu. The Texas Rangers are also thought to be involved in trying to sign the 25-year-old.
MLBtraderumors predicts 5/$40 million plus the $7.625 million posting fee.
FanGraphs predicts 5/$60 million which would mean a $10.875 million posting fee.
This is impossible to predict given the financial strain most teams are going through this offseason. HOWEVER, when you are the hypothetical GM for the Los Angeles Angels, difficult decisions must be made.
OFFER: Five years, $60 million (plus $10.875 million posting fee); The one thing I would do is backload Kim’s contract so that is salary escalates as Albert Pujols and Justin Upton are no longer under contract. In Year One, they should aim to pay Kim no more than $7.5 million (Year 4&5 would see him making $14 million per season).
ALTERNATE: None. I don’t think Marcus Semien will sign for more than one or two years or he would be a solid alternate candidate. Angels should PASS on Didi Gregorius.
UPDATED TEAM SALARY: $180.3 million
WAIT, THIS IS MORE THAN THE $175 MILLION WE AIMED FOR IN THE BEGINNING!!
DESPERATE TIMES CALL FOR DESPERATE MEASURES.
improve catching depth
Yes, J.T. Realmuto would be an amazing player to have. No, the Angels 2021 Offseason Checklist does not allow for it now that the team salary is already over $180 million. Trust me, it’ll be okay. Don’t worry about Max Stassi’s second hip surgery in as many seasons.
Simply put, there are options out there that won’t require much of an investment from the Angels. Stassi should be ready by May, at the latest, according to the 4-6 month timetable reported after his surgery. The money to sign James McCann and Yadier Molina take them out of consideration. A Jason Castro reunion would be a worthy goal for the front office. If not, Austin Romine or Tyler Flowers would also be solid, cheap choices. All three of these players play solid defense and will provide the team with depth until Stassi returns to form. One last option would be the recently non-tendered Curt Casali. In the same time period from the graphic, the 32-year-old backstop played in 167 games, had a 2.3 fWAR (30th), 2.4 bWAR, an OPS+ of 103 and a wRC+ of 106.
SIGN TYLER FLOWERS
OFFER: One year, $2.5 million
ALTERNATE: Casali, Castro, Romine
UPDATED TEAM SALARY: $182.8 million
Tomorrow…
In the finale of the Angels 2021 Offseason Checklist saga, we will look at the newly constructed team as it (hypothetically) stands going into 2021. We will also throw out a few possible Rule 5 Draft options. Thank you for reading this far down and not scrolling through quickly. Oh, you scrolled through quickly? Eh, I probably would too.