2019 Angels Year in Review, in Review (Also DH)

11/27/19 - Jay Sheehy - Founder and Editor-In-Chief

Now we come to the final Year in Review where we will look at designated hitter (more specifically, we’ll take a deep dive into looking at Shohei Ohtani). Plus, we will review what everything meant relative to the whole as far as the disappointing 2019 season and what it means for 2020. Let’s start with Ohtani.

Shohei Ohtani ($650,000) - Let’s start with his line of .286/.343/.505/.848. Solid. OPS+ of 123 is nothing to sneeze at. FanGraphs said sixteen designated hitters had at least 400 plate appearances (obviously some of these players played other positions) so we’ll see how Ohtani compared to his peers at the position.
FanGraph: 1.8 WAR (6th). He had a 2.5 WAR on Baseball Reference, where the Angels were ranked 4th as a team. His power numbers were down and he was 14th in home runs but 7th in slugging. His .505 SLG% was a 59 point drop from his rookie season (.564). Also, his BB% dropped from 10.1% to 7.8%, causing his OBP% to drop 18 points. Not surprisingly, his baserunning was second among the DH position to only Shin-Soo Choo. How much his arm injury slowed him, only Shohei knows (if even he knows) but it was a small step back from his blistering rookie season. As far as worry that he won’t return to his 2018 average, there is none. He is a freak of nature.

The far more important question, heading into the 2020 season, is regarding how much Ohtani will be able to pitch. Furthermore, how effective will he be as both a major league starter and designated hitter, just one year removed from Tommy John surgery. I, for one, wouldn’t bet against his prodigious talent, but let’s not forget that is first season did end in injury. Of course, many pitchers end up with Tommy John even though they don’t bat on their days off. Yet, if injuries become the norm for Ohtani would the Angels be better suited to moved him to pitching full time? Time will tell, but for now that’s a far off ending to a story that is still rather new. For 2020, Ohtani will surely be on an innings limit, probably between 100-120, if all goes well through Spring Training. That alone makes the Angels starting rotation noticeably better than it was in 2019. Ohtani’s talent is far superior to anyone who has taken the mound for them since he last did. When he isn’t pitching, he’ll be back at designated hitter. I’m crunching the numbers in my head (making a wild guess) and I would venture to say he starts 20-22 games on the mound and plays another 110-115 at designated hitter.

The final thoughts on 2019 and what it means for the Angels as they go through this offseason.

Catcher: They need one. Stassi is hurt, and Bemboom isn’t an everyday guy. Word is that they will non-tender Kevan Smith. Where does that leave us? The White Sox already scooped up the prize of the free agent options with their 4yr/$73 million deal with Yasmani Grandal so a smaller splash is inevitable. Plus, Travis d’Arnaud signed with the Braves. Willson Contreras is a name on the trade front that seems to be attached to every team with catching needs, and he did play for new manager Joe Maddon in Chicago, so the Angels will surely do their due diligence on that possibility, though it should be noted that Contreras doesn’t rate especially high defensively, especially with regards to pitch-framing metrics.
Best options: Yan Gomes, Jason Castro, Martin Maldonado, Alex Avila
Best guess: Martin Maldonado. They know him and so does Gerrit Cole, who pitched well when Maldonado was his catcher. If Cole is already gone then they should pivot to Castro, who is the better everyday option.

1st Base: Albert Pujols. He played 98 games there in 2019, Angels are hoping for that again in 2020. Matt Thaiss and Jared Walsh can cover the rest. They’re all better options than Justin Bour. Angels won’t be 27th in the league in 2020…probably 22nd or 23rd. Pujols will be fighting to keep that career WAR above 100 (at Baseball Reference).

2nd Base: Tommy La Stella. David Fletcher. Luis Rengifo. The Angels have the position covered. Plus, all three of them can also play other positions…which is necessary given the Angels propensity for injury. If 2019 had any silver lining it was the emergence of David Fletcher and Luis Rengifo.

3rd Base: Zack Cozart, if he stays healthy. So in reality it will probably be a lot of David Fletcher again and a little bit of Tommy La Stella and Matt Thaiss. Maybe even a sprinkle of Taylor Ward, though he seems to be on the outs right now. While everyone hopes Cozart can get healthy for the season the backup plan is Fletcher doing what he did last year. If Cozart stays healthy then Fletcher will be free to play all over the infield and a bit of left field. Either way, it’s Cozart’s last year in Anaheim. There were rumblings early in the off-season that they might look into Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson or maybe even trade for Kris Bryant, but those rumors appear unlikely at this point. Rendon looks to be out of their price range if they truly are focused on improving their atrocious pitching (Note to Angels: This should be your main priority), though getting an accomplished winner and major producer in his 30-year old season would lengthen the Angels lineup and provide true protection for Mike Trout. Donaldson still makes some sense but he’s due to make $22-25 million on a three (or four, if he gets his way) year deal. Bryant will require a significant trade package AND there is the little matter of his service clock situation (he has filed a complaint to speed up his free agency by one year. If he wins (unlikely), he will be a free agent after 2020. Verdict is expected in the next month).
The Angels would be smart to sit this one out. They have bigger fish to fry. Rendon would be amazing, but not at the cost of giving up on Gerrit Cole. Again, the Angels need Gerrit Cole.

Shortstop: Andrelton Simmons. If he’s healthy, the Angels pitching staff is already a quarter to half a run better than last season. Simmons just needs to stay healthy to get his rhythm back at the plate. But honestly, that part of his game really doesn’t matter. He is, after all, the God of Fielding.

Outfield: Justin Upton will be in left, Three-time MVP Mike Trout in center and Brian Goodwin in right…to start the season. But once that service time clock clicks over Jo Adell will be on the first plane to Anaheim. While the Angels might leave him in Triple-A a little while longer so as to not be obvious (and not have to go through what the Cubs are going through with Kris Bryant), Adell for all intents and purposes will be the Angels 2020 right fielder. Goodwin will be their amazing fourth outfielder who will occasionally DH. Or, Upton will not return to pre-2019 levels and Goodwin will infringe on his playing time. Kole Calhoun was a solid member of the Angels for many years, but his production will not be missed due to the arrival of Adell.

Designated Hitter: Shohei Ohtani. A splash of Albert Pujols and a pinch of Mike Trout.

The Bullpen: Hansel Robles looks like the closer after an impressive 2019. If Ty Buttrey keeps improving he too will be there at the end of the game. Cam Bedrosian and Keynan Middleton will be the sixth and seventh inning guys, most games. It’s definitely not a high point on their roster, yet Felix Pena will be available is multi-inning roles as needed. After that, the options are Luke Bard, Taylor Cole, Adalberto Mejia, Noe Ramirez, Jake Jewell, Jose Rodriguez, Justin Anderson…okay, it doesn’t look good. They definitely need more than one of these guys to step up. I’m not sure they were willing to jump into the Will Smith/Drew Pomeranz type bids (Smith signed a 3yr/$40 million deal with Atlanta; Pomeranz a 4/$34 million with San Diego). Will Harris had a 1.50 ERA over 60 innings, but he’s 35. Blake Treinen is a possible bounce-back candidate, but enough teams are looking at him that he won’t be a cheap as he should. Daniel Hudson is another name that might get a three year deal, but what would the Angels be willing to pay him? Or, anybody for that matter? After 2019 was filled with these type of failures you have to wonder if general manager Billy Eppler will be a bit more cautious in his dealings with the pitching market.
Best options: Daniel Hudson, Will Harris, Dellin Betances, Jake Diekman
Best guess: None of them. Billy will roll the dice on the guys they have, at least to start the year.

Starting Rotation: Shohei Ohtani won’t be pitching 150 innings, but in the 100-120 he does throw he’ll be a major improvement. Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning are locks if they are healthy. Patrick Sandoval, Jaime Barria and Jose Suarez will all be fighting for a spot in what is currently a wide open rotation. But the Angels know, the fans know, the world knows that the Angels can’t go into Spring Training with these options. There are names out there on the trade market, but usually those type of things don’t happen until the Winter Meetings, which start December 9th.
Best options: Gerrit Cole. Stephen Strasburg. Zach Wheeler. Madison Bumgarner. Hyun-Jin Ryu. Dallas Keuchel. Cole Hamels. Tanner Roark. Josh Lindblom. Wade Miley. Julio Teheran. Gio Gonzalez.
Best guess: Sign Cole out of the Yankees grasp for 8 years and $280 million. Then, look to the Lindblom/Gonzalez/Teheran market (I really like the idea of a flyer on Julio Teheran, maybe 2yr/$20 million). There are only so many true ACES in baseball, Arte Moreno. Make sure you get this one.