2019 Angels Year in Review: Starting Pitching

11/22/19 - Jay Sheehy - Founder and Editor-In-Chief

Nineteen players were credited with a start for the Los Angeles Angels in 2019. Nineteen. Sure, some of them were openers but most were legitimate starters. Eight of them had at least ten starts. None of them had twenty. Not surprisingly, the Angels had the worst starting pitching in all of baseball. Dead last. Also not surprising is that it weighted down an iffy bullpen to combine for the worst overall pitching staff in all of baseball. It was truly difficult to watch at times. The Angels had veterans who flat out couldn’t get people out; they had free agent signing who full on tanked; this lead to young pitchers getting called up who weren’t ready for the show. Plus, Shohei Ohtani was busy recovering from Tommy John surgery. Lastly, they had a devastating tragedy occur when Tyler Skaggs was found unresponsive and eventually died while they were on the road in Texas, a mere twelve days before his 28th birthday.

Starting Pitching: A Season to Forget

TOP (L to R): Tyler Skaggs, Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Jose Suarez, Matt Harvey
BOTTOM: Jaime Barria, Dillon Peters, Patrick Sandoval, Felix Pena, Chris Stratton

Tyler Skaggs ($3.7 million) - Baseball Reference: 0.9 WAR. FanGraphs: 1.8 WAR
15 starts, 7-7 with a 4.29 ERA over 79.2 IP, 1.268 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.79 K/BB
It can be difficult to remove bias when talking about the deceased. Truth be told, Skaggs always seemed like he was about to turn that proverbial corner into a top of the rotation starter. Not an ace necessarily, but I guy who could get you that 115-130 ERA+ every season with roughly 200 innings pitched. The talent was definitely there as was the passion, yet baseball is a difficult game. Skaggs last three starts saw him post a 1.62 ERA over 16.2 IP, with 16 strikeouts, only four walks and a 0.78 WHIP. Maybe it was just a good run, or maybe, he was finally on his way. Rest in paradise, Tyler.

Andrew Heaney ($3.4 million) - Baseball Reference: 1.0 WAR. FanGraphs: 1.2 WAR
18 starts, 4-6 with a 4.91 ERA over 95.1 IP, 1.290 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 3.93 K/BB
Looking to build on a solid 2018 season, where he started 30 games and pitched 180 innings with a 4.15 ERA, Heaney went the way of all Angels starters of the past fifteen years- he got hurt. Inflammation in his left elbow delayed his 2019 season debut until May 26th. While his 11.1 K/9 (13th among starters with 90+ innings) and 3.93 K/BB are huge positives, Heaney’s inconsistent mechanics (likely due to his elbow issues) made it difficult for him to build on previous outings. With a 3.87 SIERA (Skill Interactive Earned Run Average) and 4.18 xFIP, Heaney looks like a pitcher who might have been hurt by a bit of bad luck (and bad defense). His 2020 outlook looks very promising if he can stay completely healthy.

Griffin Canning ($555,000) - Baseball Reference: 1.1 WAR. FanGraphs: 1.3 WAR
17 starts (18 total), 5-6 with a 4.58 ERA over 90.1 IP, 1.218 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.20 K/BB
The Angels selected Canning with their 2nd round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, out of UCLA. He quickly moved through the minors and made his debut April 30th against the Toronto Blue Jays. On stats and narrative alone, he had a successful season. Unfortunately, like most Angels pitchers (and really players for that matter), Canning’s season was interrupted by injury. The culprit? Elbow inflammation. Is this something the Angels medical staff is unaware of? After an excellent May and a steady June, the wheels came off in July for Canning (though he did end the month with six shutout innings against Detroit…though that barely counts). The Astros (makes sense), Rangers (that hurts) and Orioles (come on, Griffin) all made quick work of the rookie hurler as his ERA skyrocketed up to 5.15 (from 3.79) before the Detroit outing. Once again, like Heaney the biggest thing Canning needs is a healthy off-season. The 23-year old fits squarely in the middle of the Angels starting rotation for 2020.

Jose Suarez ($555,000) - Baseball Reference: -1.2 WAR. FanGraphs: -0.7 WAR
15 starts (19 total), 2-6 with a 7.11 ERA over 81 IP, 1.642 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 2.18 K/BB
The sad reality of Jose Suarez’s rookie season is that it was unnecessary for him to pitch as many innings as he did with the Angels while his confidence plummeted (though Triple-A environments do not help with confidence either). Yet, the 21-year seemed ready to contribute, even if only in spot starts. What 2019 taught us was that he may be a little farther away than pundits (and Angels brass) seemed to think. He totaled zero quality starts in fifteen attempts. A 7.11 ERA. 1.642 WHIP. There’s no way to hide numbers like that. Early on it felt like he was just trying to see what worked and what didn’t, but later in the season it became quite apparent that nothing was working at all. His go-to changeup was inefficient due to the lack of success of Suarez’s other pitches. Still, he’s only 21-years old. Does he start 2020 in the big leagues? No. There is definitely some seasoning that needs to happen in Triple-A (or better yet, Double-A where the offensive environments aren’t so explosive). Either way, Suarez still figures in the Angels plans. Young pitchers every season come up to be served the customary dose of reality, and Suarez got his. The one thing we saw from him was his composure and maturity in the face of adversity (and there was a lot of it). He’ll be back and better prepared…just let him gain that confidence back first.

Matt Harvey ($11 million) - Baseball Reference: -0.7 WAR. FanGraphs: -0.3 WAR
12 starts, 3-5 with a 7.09 ERA over 59.2 IP, 1.542 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.34 K/BB
While Jose Suarez’s youth and inexperience proved too much to overcome, Matt Harvey’s lack of remaining talent was his biggest obstacle. Along with his buddies, Trevor Cahill, Cody Allen and Justin Bour, Harvey fleeced the Angels for an exorbitant amount of money to completely anchor their season to the bottom of the AL West. There were truly zero positives of Matt Harvey being on the Angels this season. He was released July 21st (thankfully) and not surprisingly didn’t pitch another inning in the big leagues (Oakland did sign him…they released him in November). Come on, Billy.

Jaime Barria ($563,500) - Baseball Reference: -0.6 WAR. FanGraphs: -0.6 WAR
13 starts (19 total), 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA over 82.2 IP, 1.440 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 2.78 K/BB
One of the hardest hits of the season for Angels fans was the regression of Barria. His 2018 season was an unexpected gem and the hope was that he would build on it (or at least sustain it). While some of his 2018 peripherals spoke to this regression (his 3.41 ERA last season was a run lower than his 4.58 FIP, 4.99 xFIP and 4.84 SIERA). So, if you were paying attention you knew the distinct possibility that Barria would have a slightly worse 2019. But this? This was very unexpected. The Season of the Home Run was definitely something Barria wasn’t prepared to deal with as he allowed 2.6 HR/9, compared to 1.2 HR/9 in 2018. Of course, the cheating Astros hit six over seven innings over Barria’s last two starts of the season, so maybe we should blame them (Barria gave up zero against them in August though). He had seven starts where he allowed multiple home runs (compared to four in 2018, where he had 26 starts). Barria, like Suarez, needs a total reset from the season. Hopefully the normal baseball returns, the Astros stop stealing signs illegally and the Angels addition of Joe Maddon as manager and Mickey Callaway as pitching coach help work wonders for these young guys who were crushed in 2019. Jaime Barria of 2018 is a valuable member of the rotation.

Dillon Peters ($563,500) - Baseball Reference: -0.1 WAR. FanGraphs: -0.5 WAR
12 starts (17 total), 4-4 with a 5.38 ERA over 72 IP, 1.542 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.12 K/BB
A November 2018 acquisition from the Miami Marlins, Peters is organizational depth at best. In 2018, he had a Triple-A ERA of 5.61 of 19 starts, and a 7.16 ERA with the Marlins over 27.2 IP. In 2019, he had a Triple-A ERA of 6.47 over 13 games, and a 5.38 ERA with the Angels over 72 innings pitched. He doesn’t strike people out. He doesn’t have great command. He’s a filler, and unfortunately for the Angels this past season, he had to fill 72 innings. Someone had to I guess.

Patrick Sandoval ($555,000) - Baseball Reference: 0.3 WAR. FanGraphs: 0.3 WAR
9 starts (10 total), 0-4 with a 5.03 ERA over 39.1 IP, 1.373 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 2.21 K/BB
Sandoval was the Angels return on the Martin Maldonado trade days before the 2018 trade deadline. His superb minor league numbers promised a high floor pitcher who was nearly ready at the big league level. He might not have been fully ready in 2019, namely his command, but his promise was apparent from his first start. While the 4.3 BB/9 number has to come down, the small sample size, and the way Ausmus used him most of the year means that is likely to happen. His minors numbers give no indication of his 2019 difficulty in his walk rate. As with the Angels pitching staff in general, Sandoval’s ever-changing usage and role made it difficult for him to find a groove or consistency in 2019. A laundry list of catchers did the young staff no favors either. Sandoval’s prospect status has lost much less shine than that of Barria or Suarez (though they shouldn’t be counted out either for the aforementioned reasons) and he looks to be in the thick of the race for the fifth spot in the rotation in 2020.

Felix Pena ($569,000) - Baseball Reference: 0.8 WAR. FanGraphs: 0.6 WAR
Starter: 7 starts, 0-2 with a 5.34 ERA over 28.2 IP, 1.256 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.18 K/BB
“Reliever”: 15 games, 8-1 with a 4.26 ERA over 67.2 IP, 1.153 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, 3.35 K/BB
As a starter, Pena average roughly four innings yet as a “reliever” he pitched even longer average four and a half innings per appearance. Of course, this was due to the Angels use of an opener in those games. For once, it really seem to work for them. Pena’s numbers are better across the board when he didn’t start the first inning. Plus, he pitched seven innings of a combined no-hitter (with Taylor Cole, who was the opener) in the first home game after Tyler Skaggs passed away. While Pena’s role going forward is up in the air, leave it to Joe Maddon to find away to best utilize this weapon. Pena did end the season on the injured list, so like many others who pitched for the Angels in 2019, the most important thing is that he is healthy for the 2020 season (Broke-broke-broke broken record).

Chris Stratton ($567,500) - Baseball Reference: -0.6 WAR. FanGraphs: -0.1 WAR
5 starts (7 total), 0-2 8.59 ERA over 29.1 IP, 2.080 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 1.22 K/BB
Just wanted to show Stratton because he moved on to the Pittsburgh Pirates and posted a 3.66 ERA as a reliever over 46.2 IP. His WHIP went down to 1.393, K/9 was 9.1 and he had a 3.13 K/BB in Pittsburgh. So, there’s that.

Also, Trevor Cahill started and was terrible, in case you forgot. Sure, it was the last post that brought up his disaster of a season but I just wanted to make sure you, the reader, remembered how bad he was.

Down on the farm, the Angels have some interesting prospects but no one near ready for Anaheim. Since Canning, Suarez, and Sandoval all have graduated the top levels of the Angels minor league system is somewhat barren. While Sandoval technically remains a rookie (he didn’t pitch 50 innings or spend 45 days in the majors) he also technically remains a prospect. MLB.com has him rated as the Angels #9 overall prospect. Jose Soriano, a right-hander out of the Dominican Republic is their #10 prospect, but the 21-year old finished this season in Low-A ball with the Burlington Bees (he did pitch well though as his 2.55 ERA would indicate). He’s a few years away. Luis Madero, a 22-year old out of Venezuela was over-matched in Double-A, posting a 5.72 ERA over 89.2 innings. Hector Yan took the biggest step forward in 2019, posting a 3.39 ERA in Low-A, while striking out 148 over 109 innings. Still, he is only rated as the Angels 17th best prospect (I think it’s a little low, but only time will tell who is right).

Where We Go From Here:
ACE - Sign Gerrit Cole for 8 years/$280 million. 30ish starts, 3ish ERA (or below), 275+ strikeouts…for the next five to six years, locked it down ACE. Sure, it’s a lot of money, but you’ve got to pay to play, Arte.
MLBTradeRumors guessed he’d sign an 8yr/$256 million deal with the Angels. I hope they’re right.
#2 - Shohei Ohtani - Pencil him in for 110 innings…which would be more than any Angels pitcher in 2019.
#3 - Andrew Heaney - If he can stay healthy, 30 starts and a 4ish ERA.
#4 - Griffin Canning - He might surprise people. 3.50 ERA type surprise. 180 innings type surprise.
#5 - Patrick Sandoval - Need him to get those walks down.
#6 - Felix Pena - Even if he’s not starting the game, Pena will throw about a 100 innings in 2020. If healthy.
Jaime Barria - He’ll probably bounce back and forth between the majors and Triple-A.
Jose Suarez - Hopefully, the addition of two proven big leaguers will allow him to stay in the minors.
Dillon Peters - I’m sure he’ll be in the mix when the Angels need a spot start or a long man.

Harvey/Cahill/Stratton and sadly, Skaggs, are all gone. That’s 43 starts that have to be filled, half of which should be filled by Ohtani. That’s a big win. Also, the Angels set Nick Tropeano free after he couldn’t get healthy. That was a little bit of a bummer because he was a solid option from 2015-18…when he was on the field. The injury bug just never went away, however, so hopefully Tropeano can get his career back on track. The Angels NEED Cole (or to a lesser degree, Strasburg/Bumgarner/Wheeler/Ryu/Keuchel/Hamels…it’s obvious they need more than one starting pitcher). There’s also the trade route, with names like Robbie Ray, Jon Gray, Chris Archer and Jeff Samardzija always in the rumor mill there. Hopefully Billy Eppler and the Angels front office realize how important of an off-season this is and do whatever necessary to sign Gerrit Cole (easy for me to say, it’s not my money). There are only so many true aces in baseball.