2019 Angels Year in Review: Relief Pitching

11/17/19 - Jay Sheehy - Founder and Editor-In-Chief

While the oft-mentioned disaster that was the Los Angeles Angels starting rotation took much of the credit for the Angels woes in 2019 (rightfully so), the up-and-down relief corp provided a glimpse of a promising future. As a whole, Angels relief pitching accrued a -2.4 bWAR that ranked 18th in baseball but the volatility of the position makes it nearly impossible to compile a large positive numbers in the WAR game (Tampa Bay had the #1 rated relief corp at 0.9 bWAR). Furthermore, the biggest culprits of the Angels negative relief WAR have already been excised.

There is no value in going over all 28 pitchers that Angels used in relief (partly because some of them slot in as starters, which will be the next article) because many of them didn’t pitch enough to effect 2019 and do not seem likely to be involved with the club going forward. We will instead focus on the eleven pitchers who were relevant to the Angels in 2019 and/or into the 2020 season.

(Note: Salaries are from an algorithm I created where I scour the internet and pick a number I hope is correct. I’m sure some are not. But, they’re probably close. Also, I went with the yearly salary number, not what they actually made…I think.)

The Bullpen: Oh, Billy

TOP (L to R): Hansel Robles, Ty Buttrey, Luis Garcia, Cam Bedrosian, Justin Anderson
BOTTOM: Taylor Cole, Luke Bard, Jake Jewell, Noe Ramirez, Trevor Cahill
Not Pictured: Cody Allen (for obvious reasons)

Hansel Robles ($1.4 million) - Baseball Reference: 2.6 WAR. FanGraphs: 1.8 WAR
2.48 ERA, 72.2 IP, 1.018 WHIP, 9.29 K/9, 4.69 K/BB
Selected off the waivers from the New York Mets in June of 2018, Robles turned it on this year to the tune of a 2.48 ERA (184 ERA+) over 72.2 innings to forcefully take the closer position from Cody Allen (though to be fair, Allen made it quite easy to do). His K/9 rate of 9.29 was meager compared to his closer counterparts, yet Robles was able to navigate his way through The Year of the Home Run by allowing only 7.9% of his fly balls to end up on the wrong side of the fence. That was 3rd best out of the 22 closers who finished with more than 20 saves. Though it can be said that much of Hansel’s success was on the lucky side, as his 3.93 xFIP alludes to, the likelihood of 2020 having a “deader” ball means Robles low ground ball percentage (38.7%) won’t hurt him as much. As both versions of WAR have him at 1.8 or above, 2019 can only be seen as a very successful season for Hansel Robles.

Ty Buttrey ($557,250) - BRef: 0.9 WAR. FanG: 1.4 WAR
3.98 ERA, 72.1 IP, 1.272 WHIP, 10.45 K/9, 3.65 K/BB
Acquired in the July 2018 trade of Ian Kinsler to Boston, big ol’ boy Buttrey is right there with Robles in the running for 2020 closer. Though Robles boasts slightly better stuff, Buttrey’s ability to get punchouts is superior to the tune of 10.45 K/9 (more than a full strikeout better than Robles). Buttrey’s command, however, leaves something to be desired. The 2.8 BB/9 isn’t as big of an issue as the hard hit balls are. Buttrey’s .323 BABIP suggests opposing batters are able to hit his mistakes well. His 90.0 MPH exit velocity against is in the bottom 9% of the league, according to Baseball Savant. Yet, the stuff is there. If he can take that next step then his role as a late inning reliever will be secure in Anaheim for years to come.

Luis Garcia ($1.675 million) - BRef: 0.1 WAR. FanG: -0.6 WAR
4.35 ERA, 62 IP, 1.516 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 1.73 K/BB
Garcia’s one season in Anaheim was up-and-down…but mostly down. After refusing a minors assignment on October 31, the Angels released him. The sole return in the Jose Alvarez trade to Philadelphia, Garcia was done in all season by troubles with the first pitch. The 1.481 OPS against him speaks to an incredibly high average and slugging percentage (because you can’t walk someone on your first pitch…though he did hit two batters). The fact that he pitched 62 innings is indicative of how bad the Angels pitching depth was all season. Garcia allowed 11 of 26 inherited runners to score, putting his Inherited Score percentage (IS%) at a paltry 42.3%, which was 10% worse than league average.

Cam Bedrosian ($1.75 million) - BRef: 0.6 WAR. FanG: 0.8 WAR
3.23 ERA, 61.1 IP, 1.141 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.91 K/BB
Look, there’s a lot of value in having a 2019 season like Cam Bedrosian. If that’s what you get from all of your relief pitchers then you are in a pretty solid place. BUT, Angels fans remember 2016, and remember it well, and they will not be satisfied by a 3.23 ERA and 9.4 K/9 from Cameron Rock Bedrosian. To recap, Bedrosian had a 1.12 ERA over 40.1 innings while posting an 11.4 K/9. Closer of the future was thrown around. Game changer. Now, he’s a solid piece to pitch the 7th and occasionally 8th inning. In allowing six of fifteen inherited runners to score (40%), Bedrosian’s IS% was 8% below the league average of 32%. So, not exactly a lock down pitcher anymore.

Justin Anderson ($561,500) - BRef: -0.4 WAR. FanG: 0.3 WAR
5.55 ERA, 47 IP, 1.574 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 1.88 K/BB
Command and control have always been an issue for the 27-year old Anderson and little changed in the 2019 season. Although he lowered his BB/9 from his rookie season, it remained at 6.1 BB/9, which was eighth worst in baseball for pitchers who threw more than 45 innings. There’s really not a lot to like here other than the possibility that new pitching coach, Mickey Callaway, can work some of his magic.

Taylor Cole ($557,500) - BRef: -0.4 WAR. FanG: 0.9 WAR
5.92 ERA, 51.2 IP, 1.587 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.08 K/BB
There’s a theme developing here where Angels relief pitchers who pitched significant innings have 5+ ERA’s and 1.5+ WHIP’s. It’s not a good theme. After a surprising 2018 season that included a 0.889 WHIP and 9.8 K/9, Cole somehow didn’t start the season on the Angels roster. Then, the 29-year old responded with a dud of a season where he regressed across the board (he’s 30, now). His 33.3% IS% was one of the better marks for Angels pitchers who threw 50+ innings but otherwise there isn’t much to be excited about when looking at his 2019 season. If FanGraphs sees his contributions and thinks 0.9 WAR, then they need to rethink their algorithm.

Luke Bard ($575,000) - BRef: 0.2 WAR. FanG: 0.1 WAR
4.78 ERA, 49 IP, 1.102 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.08 K/BB
After being selected by the Angels in the 2018 Rule 5 Draft, Bard was returned to Minnesota for the 2018 season. Once released, the Angels jumped at the chance to retain his services. The 28-year responded with a solid rookie season that ended with a sub-4 ERA after the all-star game. Yet, Bard’s near fifty inning season speaks to one of the issues with the Angels approach to the bullpen. They are trying to find diamonds in the rough for far too many spots in the bullpen. Rule 5 draftee for a season? Sure, that’s worth a gamble. The majority of your relief pitching coming up as 25+ years old? Not a great indicator of talent. While there are many pitchers who have done this, the majority of top notch pitcher make their debut much earlier in their twenties. This isn’t a shot toward Bard (or Anderson, Cole, etc.), it’s more of a general questioning of the Angels approach.

Jake Jewell ($555,000) - BRef: -0.3 WAR. FanG: -0.4 WAR
6.84 ERA, 26.1 IP, 1.37 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 2.88 K/BB
The 26-year old didn’t pitch much for the big league club in 2019, so he’ll still be a rookie in 2020. When he did pitch, it didn’t go well though he did only allow 30% of his inherited runners to score (out of ten). The Angels fifth round pick in the 2014 Draft, Jewell didn’t pitch much better in Salt Lake City, ending with a 5.26 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. Next.

Cody Allen ($8.5 million) - BRef: -0.2 WAR. FanG: -0.7 WAR
6.26 ERA, 23 IP, 1.913 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 1.45 K/BB
Cody motherlovin’ Allen. $8.5 million. 1.913 WHIP!!! June 18, 2019, released.
For pitchers who threw 20+ innings in 2019, Allen was:
- 3rd worst in BB/9 at 7.83.
- 6th worst in HR/9 at 3.52.
- His 89.2% LOB% means he was unlikely to even maintain that low of an ERA.
- 4th worst in xFIP (expected Field Independent Pitching) at 7.02 (proving the previous stat to be true).
- 6th worst in FIP at 8.39.
Basically, Cody Allen was paid money to lose games for the Angels. And yet, I’m not mad about the signing. Finding a closer in MLB is incredibly difficult. He was worth the gamble. If we look at the other top relief pitchers that were signed it is rather obvious that this is a difficult thing to get right.
Craig Kimbrel (3yr/$43 million on 6/5/19) - 6.53 ERA, 1.597 WHIP over 20.2 IP.
Zack Britton (3yr/$39 million) - 1.91 ERA, 1.141 WHIP over 61.1 IP.
Jeurys Familia (3yr/$30 million) - 5.70 ERA, 1.733 WHIP over 60 IP.
Adam Ottavino (3yr/$27 million) - 1.90 ERA, 1.312 WHIP over 66.1 IP.
Andrew Miller (2yr/$25 million) - 4.45 ERA, 1.317 WHIP over 54.2 IP.
Joe Kelly (3yr/$25 million) - 4.56 ERA, 1.383 WHIP over 51.1 IP.
David Robertson (2yr/$23 million) - 5.40 ERA, 2.100 WHIP over 6.2 IP.
Kelvin Herrera (2yr/$18 million) - 6.14 ERA, 1.617 WHIP over 51.1 IP.
Joakim Soria (2yr/$15 million) - 4.30 ERA, 1.029 WHIP over 69 IP.
Justin Wilson (2yr/$10 million) - 2.54 ERA, 1.333 WHIP over 39 IP.
Jesse Chavez (2yr/$8 million) - 4.85 ERA, 1.333 WHIP over 78 IP.
Derek Holland (1yr/$7 million) - 6.08 ERA, 1.506 WHIP over 84.1 IP.

Average: 2.333yr/$22.5 million ($9.64 million/yr) - 4.41 ERA, 1.382 WHIP over 53.55 IP.
Baseball Reference: 0.3 WAR. FanGraphs: 0.2 WAR.

What did we learn from this? Try to sign who the Yankees are going after. So while Cody Allen had a terrible season with the Angels, he was far from the only big dollar relief pitcher signing to go through it. Plus, Edwin Diaz was acquired via trade from the Seattle Mariners and he crapped the proverbially bed as well in 2019. It’s not easy being a closer. Billy, I think you get a pass…this time.

Trevor Cahill ($9 million) - BRef: -0.3 WAR. FanG: -0.8 WAR (these numbers include games started)
As a starter: 11 starts, 2-5, 6.92 ERA, 53.1 IP, 1.369 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.39 K/BB
In relief: 26 appearances, 2-4, 4.96 ERA, 49 IP, 1.571 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 1.81 K/BB
As you can see, no matter the role he was given, Trevor Cahill did not perform well. Yet, he was the only Angels pitcher to eclipse 100 innings for the season. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2019 Los Angeles Angels season!! His final line, with a 5.98 ERA, 1.466 WHIP and terrible peripheral numbers all fit right in with the rest of the aforementioned players. Oh, except for the $9 million price tag attached to it. So I guess he just fits in with Cody Allen. You do not get a pass for this, Billy. YOU DO NOT GET A PASS!!!

Noe Ramirez ($569,000) - BRef: 1.0 WAR. FanG: 0.9 WAR (these numbers include games started)
Opener (Ramirez didn’t have any traditional starts): 7 GS, 6.48 ERA over 8.1 IP, 1.200 WHIP, 10.8 K/9
In relief: 44 games, 3.64 ERA, 59.1 IP, 1.163 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 4.06 K/BB (3.33 as an opener)
After three straight seasons of exactly thirteen innings pitched at the big league level, Ramirez finally broke through with the Angels in 2018, throwing 83.1 innings. He fit the mold of mid-twenties throw away (he came from Boston) that Billy Eppler loves so much. In his case, however, it has worked out so far for the Angels. The best way new manager Joe Maddon can deploy Ramirez is as a multi-inning reliever in games the starter doesn’t hit six innings. Hopefully he isn’t slotted in the opener spot, where he failed miserably.

In closing, the Angels had a terrible bullpen season in 2019…but guess what? Maybe it doesn’t matter. The Washington Nationals just won the World Series with one of the worst bullpens in baseball (they ranked 25th but their IS% of 42% was the worst one in baseball by FOUR PERCENT!!). Maybe, just maybe, that money is better spent trying to shore up your starting rotation (Nationals had the best starting rotation by 3.9 bWAR, the biggest margin since they had a 4.7 bWAR difference to second place in 2014). Maybe, I don’t even know how I’m writing this, maybe Billy Eppler knows what he’s doing trying to get 25-28 year old pitchers who haven’t made it to the majors yet…something to think about. No, no, no, that’s wrong; this year the Washington Nationals won the World Series because the baseball gods didn’t want the Houston Astros to cheat their way to another title. It’s really that simple. Plus, the starting rotation was truly stacked. Yep, that’s what I’m going with because it all matters and the Angels need to find some solutions in the pen.

Where We Go From Here:
Closer: Hansel Robles - His estimated $4 million contract will be a bargain. He’s legit.
Setup: Ty Buttrey - He’ll be down in the $575k range for 2020. He’s only getting better.
Cam Bedrosian - MLBTradeRumors has him at $2.8 million. That might be the limit for what he’s worth.
Keynan Middleton - The Return. We will find out if Tommy John depleted his power. If it’s still there, Buttrey and Bedrosian will slide down a spot. Middleton was the closer of the future before he got hurt so fingers crossed that he brings that talent back in 2020.
After that, we start getting into the longer shots. Adalberto Mejia pitched some for the Angels in 2019, and he’ll get an extended look since the Angels have no depth at left-handed relief. They also claimed Mike Mayers off waivers from the St. Louis Cardinals. His number leave a lot to be desired but some guys just need a change of scenery. Hopefully, he’s one of those guys. After that it will be Ramirez, Anderson, Cole, Bard and Jewell. Not a group that instills a large amount of confidence, but a full season of Middleton will definitely help…if he’s healthy. While it would be nice to sign someone the previously mentioned contracts of big time relievers proved there’s no simple way to do that. Instead, the Angels need to lower the expectations of the bullpen by greatly enhancing the starting rotation (SEE: GERRIT COLE).