60 REASONS THE DODGERS WIN IT ALL IN 2020
By Jay Sheehy
Is 2020 the year the Los Angeles Dodgers get over the hump and finally win a World Series? Would that be enough for Dodgers fans, knowing that many will see this season as a farce and any title weighted down by an asterisk? Who cares. The season is happening, the title will count just the same and the Los Angeles Dodgers will be fitted for ring sizes at the end of it. Since the team released their 60-player pool a few days ago it seems a perfect time to show the 60 (or maybe 30; we’ll see) reasons why the Dodgers will win the franchise’s first championship since 1988.
2020: Year of the Dodgers
60 games. A shorter season will surely create anomalies but you would have to be certifiably insane to believe the Dodgers won’t make the playoffs. And once there, with less wear and tear on their bodies (and pitching arms), their talent level will shine.
59-51. Nine spots in the lineup. Why? Because one through nine, with the newly included Designated Hitter, the Dodgers lineup will be…destructive. Further down the list we’ll find just how powerful of a team the Dodgers had during the 2019 season. And this year, it’ll be even better.
#50 Mookie Betts: When asked why he wears #50, Betts replied that “nobody wants it.” Well, everyone on Earth wants this #50.
49-44. (I know this is cheating, but limericks have to count for more than one reason)
No one in the stands this season brings
To watch the battles of the baseball kings
Instead it’s short and sweet
The Dodgers shall not retreat
It ends at the jeweler being fitted for rings
43 years old. President of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman. He’s going to be around for a long time and, as long as he is, the Dodgers will be in contention.
#42 Jackie Robinson. It’s always Jackie Robinson when it’s 42. He got the MVP in 1949; he could have easily added the 1951 (sorry, Campy) and 1952 trophies to his case, as well. How does this help the Dodgers in 2020, you ask? Perspective.
41 wins in their first 60 games in 2019. That means bet over 37.5 wins if you’re in Vegas. You’re welcome.
40 saves per season. Kenley Jansen’s average over the last six years. Is he the same pitcher he was 2015-2017? Unlikely. Will it matter this year? Probably not. The Dodgers have plenty of options.
#39 Roy Campanella. Because people forget about him. Even Dodgers fans. He was a great one. In case you forgot, he won three MVP awards and a World Series title in 1955.
38 Combined WAR: Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Gavin Lux. Was it a reach? Yes. Do I regret it? Also yes. Is it a reason why the Dodgers will win the World Series in 2020. Also, probably. They obviously won’t combined for that number this season.
37.5 Wins - That’s the over/under, according to Las Vegas. They are tied with the Yankees at that number (though you do get better odds if you bet on New York). Next up in the NL: Atlanta and Washington are both at 33.5 wins.
36 home runs from Joc Pederson last season, in 401 at-bats against right-handed pitching. He hit zero against lefties in only 49 at-bats. Also, a .920 OPS against RHP…only a .505 against LHP. Someone is going to get very specific days off this season.
#35 Cody Bellinger: Averages a HR every 3.5 games in the first half versus one every 5.1 games in the second half. Plus, his OPS is 80 points higher in the first half at this point of his career. You think he’s scared of a shorter season?
34. The Dodgers led baseball with a 34.625 Home Run/position player in 2019. Why is that important? It should be obvious; instead of giving up one or two at-bats per game to someone with no business in the batter’s box, they’ll instead send to the plate someone who is there strictly to hit now that the National League gets a DH. As for that 34.625 number, the Twins were second at 34.111 and the Yankees were third at 34. A simple argument could be made that the Dodgers are effectively trading out their pitcher’s at-bats for Mookie Betts. Think about that for a second.
#33 David Price: Had a 3.24 ERA over the first half in 2019. Then, injuries hit (again). If healthy, he’s still an incredibly talented pitcher. That’s a big “if.”
32 years since they last won the World Series. Seriously, it’s time.
#31 Joc Pederson: Along with Ross Stripling (and his career 3.51 ERA/115 ERA+), Pederson is welcomed back into the fold after a very public trade fell through with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim via Orange County of California. While this doesn’t move the needle a ton for the Dodgers (it does for the Angels, who could have really used Stripling), it gives them more pitching depth and more power.
#30 Dave Roberts: Despite some questionable decisions, he’s an excellent manager. Because those questionable decisions are only noted as such due to the fact they didn’t work (well, don’t go to Kershaw in relief- that’s a no-brainer). Most of them do.
29 years old. Average age for Dodgers pitchers in 2019. Out with 40-year old Rich Hill, 33-year old Hyun-Jin Ryu and 32-year old Kenta Maeda. Welcome 22-year old Dustin May and 26-year old Tony Gossolin. See, President of Baseball Operations, Andrew Friedman always has a plan for this year and every year after.
.28 ERA lower than 2nd place in the majors (Tampa Bay). The Dodgers 3.37 ERA was just a hair better than the 3.38 ERA from 2018, AND the 3.38 ERA from 2017. Eerily consistent.
27 intentional walks between Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts. Okay, I’m reaching here. Bellinger did the heavy lifting with an National League leading 21 plate appearances without seeing a pitch (I still don’t like it; I remember Mark Wohlers air-mailing a couple pitches during the 1997 playoffs when Bobby Cox called for him to intentionally walk a batter. It matters).
26 year old, Corey Seager. Injuries have dulled some of his shine over the last few seasons, but now fully healthy, Seager is about to deliver on the promise he showed as a 22-year old. In case you forgot, he won the Rookie of the Year award and placed third in the N.L. MVP voting. Just remember when he’s Top-10 in MVP voting this season that you heard it here first.
25 year old, Walker Buehler (for another month). He’s already this amazing and he’s going to be around FOREVER (or he’ll sign for $350 million dollars somewhere else). You can chalk up 15 wins and a sub-3.25 ERA for the next decade. The future is here. Prediction: He starts Game 1 of the 2020 World Series.
24 year old, Cody Bellinger (for another two weeks). He’s already this amazing and he’s going to be around FOREVER (or he’ll sign for $750 million dollars somewhere else- yeah, position players can really go for the cash). You can chalk up 35+ home runs per season for the next decade. Prediction: He leads the National League in total bases again.
23 days before Opening Day. This doesn’t improve the Dodgers chances, I just wanted to work that in at some point.
#22 Clayton Kershaw: Since the start of 1920, Kershaw’s career ERA of 2.44 is the lowest of anyone with 50 starts. For every negative thing you hear someone say about Kershaw’s decline (he had a 3.03 ERA in 2019; technically, it’s a decline but only by his inhuman standards) or lack of playoff success, remember that his career is still better than anyone who has ever toed the rubber.
#21 Walker Buehler: Fans and writers alike seem to agree that Wins are an overrated statistic (though now they might be underrated, but that’s for another time). Yet, Win% still matters because it means you were in the game when it was decided. Walker Buehler led the National League with a .778 Winning %. It won’t be the last time.
20 saves. Kenley Jansen has outdistanced second place in the National League, over the last three seasons, by twenty saves (First place in the majors is Edwin Diaz, who had a disaster debut season with the Mets in 2019).
19 losses through their first 60 games in 2019. 21 losses over their last 60 games. The Dodgers will win 40 this season. As mentioned in the first part of this (#41), go to Vegas immediately, take all of the money out of your bank, and bet on the Dodgers to win more than 37.5 games.
18 shutouts (as a team) last season. The most in baseball. With incredible depth and a shortened season it seems likely they will lead this category once again.
#17 Joe Kelly: Once the playoffs roll around, Roberts will use him far less. We all know why.
#16 Will Smith: There’s nothing wrong with a .907 OPS (134 OPS+) while playing above average defense behind the plate. Now, the Dodgers will get him for a full season…which will be less than he played last year.
15 Home Runs or more in 2019: Bellinger, Pederson, Muncy, Turner, Seager, Hernandez, Pollock, Smith and of course, Mookie Betts. That means every spot in the lineup. Are you not understanding how dangerous this lineup is? You can’t pitch around someone because the next person up can inflict almost as much damage. ERA’s beware.
#14 Kike Hernandez: Dodgers fan or not, if you don’t love Kike then you don’t love baseball. Plus, he’s a swiss-army defender.
#13 Max Muncy: Over the last two seasons only five people have hit 70 HR, drove in 175 RBI, scored 175 runs and had an On-base percentage over .380: Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Alex Bregman, J.D. Martinez and…Max Muncy.
12% better than league average hitting, as a team (112 OPS+). To put that into perspective, that is exactly the same number as Hall of Famers Craig Biggio and Cal Ripken Jr. Even the great Derek Jeter only had a 115 OPS+, yet as a team the Dodgers were at 112 despite the fact they had pitchers coming to the plate once or twice a game. Wow.
#11 A.J. Pollock: I know he might be a little overpaid and that his March/April was terrible in 2019. Move past it. Once he returned from the Injured List (his biggest issue by far) he was fire. He rattled off a .288/.348/.537/.885 line while drastically improving his defense from the start of the season. How long was that second half sprint? 58 games.
#10 Justin Turner: Is the 20th rated position player over the last five seasons, according to both fWAR and bWAR. He’s a really good baseball player during the season; he’s an ever better one during the playoffs.
#9 Gavin Lux: Your abbreviated 2020 season National League Rookie of the Year. And he’ll probably bat ninth.
8 straight NL West titles. Well, it will be eight once they win the division this season. The Giants and Rockies are terrible so no need to talk about them. The Padres and Diamondbacks present challenges in that they might, MIGHT, cost the Dodgers home-field advantage in the playoffs. But neither team will be within five games when it’s all said and done.
#7 Julio Urias: four years ago he started 15 games and had a 3.39 ERA. He’ll turn 24 in August. This is the year it all comes together.
6 starting pitchers with a career ERA of 3.51 (Stripling) or lower. Arbitrary number, you say….I agree. Not included in this is Tony Gossolin (only 40 career innings) and Jimmy Nelson (4.41 ERA).
#5 Corey Seager: Maybe he never becomes the superstar he seemed destined to be; maybe he does. But one thing should be very clear right now: he’s a very good baseball player. He’ll make the pro-rated version of $7.6 million and I’ll go out on a very short limb and say he’ll be one of the Dodgers three best players this year. Mark it, dude.
4 pitchers threw 150 innings for the Dodgers in 2019. Two are gone (Ryu, Maeda). How is this a positive? Dave Roberts was going to have a difficult enough time managing this season without having to explain to pitchers why they weren’t getting enough innings. As mentioned above, the Dodgers have anywhere between 7-9 starters. There wasn’t space for two more, even two as talented as Ryu and Maeda. This also affords Roberts a little bit more leeway which is nice to have during an unprecedented season such as this.
3 MVP’s: Clayton Kershaw (2014), Mookie Betts (2018) and Cody Bellinger (2019). Almost as impressive, seven other players on the roster have received MVP votes.
2nd best player in baseball over the last five seasons: Mookie Betts. His FanGraph WAR (fWAR) is 35.4 (along with Mike Trout he is only player over 30 fWAR; Kris Bryant is third at 27.8) and his Baseball Reference WAR (bWAR) is 39.4 (Nolan Arenado is third at 31.4). So, the Dodgers are adding the 2nd best player of the last half-decade to a team that won 106 games in 2019. (Editor’s Note: Mike Trout had a 44.2 fWAR and 45.2 bWAR; Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, is Mike Trout)
1. Talent. They have more than everybody else. A lot more. Sorry if that’s anti-climactic, but it’s the truth. I would really enjoy seeing the odds of them not getting shutout this season. I’ll go all-in that they don’t. Speaking of odds, the Dodgers are the favorites to be crowned champions as they sit at +375 to win it all (Yankees are #2 at +400). Your 2020 World Series champions, the Los Angeles Dodgers.