Dylan Bundy: A Deep Dive

12/18/19 - Jay Sheehy - Founder and Editor-In-Chief

Give it time, Angels fans. Dylan Bundy is going to make a difference.

Dylan Bundy is not going to be the savior of the Angels pitching staff. There, I said it. He’s not going to be an ace, or a lock-down game-changer who we count on to end three game losing streaks. He will not instill fear in the hearts of the opposing team’s lineup. That is not who Dylan Bundy is.

Over the last three seasons, Bundy has started 89 games for the Baltimore Orioles as they have finished dead last in the AL East (winning a total of 176 games…which means they’ve averaged 103 losses a season). They have been terrible. Bundy went 28-39 with a 4.83 ERA over 503 innings pitched. His WHIP was 1.320. He’s given up 96 home runs. His advanced stats aren’t much better: ERA+ of 92, Field Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.76. Yet, when looking to project how he’ll pitch in 2020 one thing needs to be abundantly clear: That is also not what Dylan Bundy is.

Why? Glad you asked.

Let’s start with where they play, both home and away. First, we have Camden Yards, the beautiful stadium the Orioles call home- it’s a hitter’s paradise. Park Factors show it was the fifth best scoring environment in 2019 (though it was weirdly 18th in 2018) and fourth best for the long ball (9th in 2018, 3rd in 2017). This is where players seemingly “get hot” due to the short fences (and let’s be fair, Orioles pitching). The top spot for home runs went to Toronto’s Rogers Centre in 2019. Yankees were #2 in 2017 and #5 in 2018. This is a division filled with run-scoring stadiums. While Fenway Park is usually about league average, Tropicana Field is the only stadium that is annually rated near the bottom of the league in home run ratio. But while Fenway is usually average in home runs, it is always Top-10 in overall run-scoring ballparks.

So, Dylan Bundy has had to pitch in some really difficult parks throughout his career. Sure, it’s the same for everyone in the AL East, but at least they get to pitch against the Orioles. Which brings up point #2: The AL East is stacked with amazing lineups, namely the two bullies on the block: New York and Boston.

Dylan Bundy career numbers by opponent:
Boston Red Sox - 14 starts (18 games), 3-8 W-L, 4.99 ERA over 83 IP, 13 home runs allowed
New York Yankees - 11 starts (13 games), 2-6 W-L, 6.52 ERA over 58 IP, 12 home runs allowed
Tampa Bay Rays - 13 starts (14 games), 5-6 W-L, 6.19 ERA over 68.1 IP, 21 home runs allowed
Toronto Blue Jays - 11 starts (15 games), 5-3 W-L, 3.07 ERA over 70.1 IP, 10 home runs allowed
Okay, he likes pitching against the Blue Jays. But his overall line against the AL East is still pretty horrific:

49 starts (60 games), 15-23 W-L, 5.12 ERA over 279.2 IP, 56 home runs allowed
Against everyone else: 54 starts (67 games) 23-22 W-L, 4.30 ERA over 334.2 IP, 58 home runs allowed (he has to work on keeping the ball in the park—Angels Stadium should help a little bit).

Non-Blue Jays edition: 38 starts (45 games), 10-20 W-L, 5.80 ERA over 209.1 IP, 46 home runs allowed
Against everyone else: 65 starts (82 games), 28-25 W-L, 4.09 ERA over 405 IP, 68 home runs allowed

Lastly, the Orioles have been perennial basement dwellers with regards to defensive metrics. While defensive stats are often difficult to evaluate, simply watching a couple Orioles games will prove the atrocity that was their (insert position here) position. Their team was terrible defensively, with FanGraphs rating their overall defense worst in baseball…or did they rate the Pirates as the worst? (Seriously, they have different numbers on different pages…I’ll have to do some digging). Either way, it was not a positive for their pitching staff (especially the outfield defense, which was exponentially worse than the infielders). Furthermore, pitching in a losing environment has to have a negative effect on a pitcher like Bundy who is known to be a gamer (this is obviously more opinion than fact…am I reaching now? A little).

In the end, Dylan Bundy was a worthy gamble for the talent-starved pitching staff of the Los Angeles Angels. While his excellent cutter and impressive fastball velocity have all but disappeared since Tommy John surgery, Bundy still goes out and competes. Sure, there will still be issues when facing deep lineups like the Houston Astros and the bullies back East, but now he has the pitching-friendly confines of Angels Stadium, with supreme defenders like Andrelton Simmons, David Fletcher and Sir Michael Nelson Trout.

My prediction: The most important thing to note here is that Bundy making 30 starts will by itself make the trade worth it (unless Isaac Mattson or Kyle Bradish become Mike Clevinger). We just need him to continue to stay healthy because that is not something Angels pitchers have been very successful at over the last six or seven seasons.

31 starts, 14-11 W-L (pending other moves), 3.63 ERA over 181 IP, 23 home runs allowed, 1.207 WHIP.

This is Dylan Bundy.