Under-the-Radar Angels Trade Options

12/21/19 - Jay Sheehy - Founder and Editor-In-Chief

Big names like David Price, Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd and Jon Gray are ubiquitous in trade discussions this offseason but others like Dylan Bundy, who the Angels acquired, had very little buzz. As such I wrote about those big (frequently mentioned) names in yesterday’s article. Other pitchers, however, can be had just as easily as those four if the Angels are willing to think outside of the box a little bit.

Who might be available…and be worth the effort…and in the Angels price range? We’ll take a look at the starting pitchers who might be expendable because of a rebuild (Miami? Detroit?), a team looking to shed money (Chicago Cubs? Boston? Atlanta?) or because of rotation depth (New York (AL)? New York (NL)? Los Angeles (NL)?). Also, there’s Cleveland.

Non-contenders without a noticeable upgrade: Toronto, Baltimore, Chicago (AL), Kansas City (Duffy is trending down), Seattle, Pittsburgh (I don’t believe in Archer…at all; he has an ERA+ of 96 since the beginning of the 2016 season- HARD PASS).

Divisional rivals unlikely to swing this type of trade: Houston (looking for a SP anyway), Oakland, Texas (they just built their staff so this is highly unlikely as well).

Contenders with locked-in staff: Minnesota (might still be looking for another SP), Washington, Philadelphia (I guess they’re contenders), Milwaukee (might need another SP), St. Louis, Cincinnati (they’ll be right there in the Central), Atlanta (though they might be willing to deal Mike Foltynewicz…who isn’t much of an upgrade).

Contenders who are hard to gauge: Los Angeles (NL), San Diego? (Hard to say if they are a contender or not at this point in the offseason- either way, they don’t have a pitcher that matches the Angels needs).

Teams who aren’t leaning too hard in either direction: Arizona (sure they acquired Madison Bumgarner but now they are looking to trade Robbie Ray…so, what will it be Arizona?)

Teams looking to shed money: Boston, Chicago (NL)

Contenders willing to deal: New York (AL), Tampa Bay (always open to a trade), Cleveland (if Lindor is traded they’ll be moved to non-contender), New York (NL),
…and have viable assets: Tampa Bay, Cleveland- No, New York, J.A. Happ DOES NOT count.
…and won’t empty your pockets: Cleveland

Non-contenders with possibilities: Detroit (not talking Matthew Boyd here), Miami, Colorado, San Francisco.

Under-the-Radar Options

New York Yankees: J.A. Happ anyone? No, no one? He doesn’t move the needle enough or at all. Part of reading other ideas about how the Angels can improve their pitching is disregarding the negligible difference that would come in going for the J.A. Happ types of the world. Moving on.

Boston Red Sox: David Price, obviously. Anything else? Nathan Eov—yeah, nothing else.

Cleveland Indians: Mike Clevinger’s name has come up recently in rumors…the same Mike Clevinger the Angels traded for the last 21.1 innings of Vinnie Pestano’s career back in August of 2014. Mike Clevinger, who turns 29 today (Happy Birthday ol’ boy!), and who accrued 4.2 bWAR in only 21 starts in 2019. Well done, Los Angeles Angels. Should they go after him? Definitely. Do they have the pieces to make it happen? Well, that’s not so clear. Sure, the Indians got little back for Cory Kluber, but they were effectively dumping his contract. Clevinger isn’t a free agent until 2023, though his salary does go up as his arbitration begins this offseason. So, he’ll definitely cost a lot more to acquire than Kluber did for Texas. His 152 ERA+ (in 447.2 innings) over the last three seasons is 5th in all of baseball for pitchers with more than 400 innings. Max Scherzer (167 ERA+ in 593.2 IP), Corey Kluber (157 ERA+ in 454.1 IP), Justin Verlander (156 ERA+ in 643 IP), and Jacob deGrom (156 ERA+ over 622.1 IP) are the only starting pitchers with better marks than Clevinger. 6th place? Clayton Kershaw with a 151 ERA+ over 514.2 IP (Hyun-Jin Ryu also had a 151 ERA+ over the last three seasons, though he only pitched 391.2 innings). 7th place? Chris Sale with a 149 ERA+ over 519.2 innings. Then, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, and GERRIT COLE!! This is quite the list to be fifth place on. So, Clevinger is most definitely out of the Angels prospect price range.

Detroit Tigers: Matthew Boyd was a pass for me because he seems incredibly overvalued. Is he trending n the right direction? Yes. Is he definitely better than his 4.50ish ERA? I’m not so sure. Jordan Zimmerman? Haha, absolutely not (he has the highest ERA for pitchers with 400+ innings over the past three seasons- a splendid 5.80 [ERA+ of 79]; all for the cool price of $67 million. OUCH). Pass on Daniel Norris too. Gamble on Michael Fulmer? No. Spencer Turnbull, however, is an interesting idea. Not a good idea, mind you, but an interesting one. The thing about Detroit is they have an avalanche of young studs in the minors who will soon push most if not all of these guys out the door. Starting with Casey Mize, the #1 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, and ending with Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal (and his 13.3 K/9 in 2019), Franklin Perez, Alex Faedo and Joey Wentz, it’s obvious the Tigers have an abundance of high-end arms in their farm system. They should be looking to move everybody else to shore up other positions (they need to shore up every single position- Go Tigers). Still, I wouldn’t trade for Matthew Boyd if I was the Angels. What about one of the prospects? What is the going rate for a Franklin Perez? These are the types of moves the Angels need to least consider as they haven’t been able to secure a front-line starter through other avenues. Is Franklin Perez that? Maybe not. Is the 27 innings over the last two years a concern? Definitely. But it’s also what allows for the Angels to buy low on a potential impact starter. Now I’m not saying this is the definite move to make, but it’s the type of move the Angels need to add to their arsenal.

New York Mets: What about Noah Syndergaard? This might not be the traditional under-the-radar type acquisition as Syndergaard has seemingly been on the trade block since he signed his first contract. So bare with me for a sec—what’s that, he didn’t like the way new Angels pitching coach, Mickey Callaway, used him when Callway was the manager of the Mets? Okay, don’t bare with me, it was a long-shot to begin with so that’s too big of a hurdle to clear. Moving on…

Arizona Diamondbacks: Robbie Ray is obviously the big name on the block in Arizona but what if the D’backs threw a curve ball and traded another pitcher instead? I’m thinking Luke Weaver. An increase in cutter usage helped Weaver not only post solid K/9 and WHIP rates, but it kept the ball in the park and allowed him to induce much weaker contact, as shown in his .292 BABIP. Or, he got lucky. My guess is the former, and pitching in Angels Stadium instead of Arizona will also reduce that home run rate even more. Injuries to his UCL (ulnar collateral ligament) and flexor pronator limited Weaver to twelve starts in 2019. Again, this is the perfect time to buy low. Weaver is 26 and isn’t a free agent until 2024.

Miami Marlins: What does a rebuilding team most of all? Assets. It doesn’t matter if you have productive major league starters if you’re still going to end up with a hundred plus losses (105 in 2019, to be exact). So what’s the best way to acquire more assets, or more specifically, quality assets? Trade young pitching. Jose Urena. Caleb Smith. Sandy Alcantara. Trevor Richards. Pablo Lopez. Now, they aren’t all quality pitchers yet so they don’t all squarely fit what the Halos are looking for right now. Cross off Richards and Lopez for sub-par results. Low K/9 results lead to utter disaster in the American League; cross of Urena and Alcantara too. What about Caleb Smith? 9.9 K/9 and 7.5 H/9 in 2019- Good start. Team controlled through 2024- check. A 1.5 MPH reduction in fastball velocity…not good. But, FanGraphs Josh Herzenberg posits in a September article that this might be by design as Smith (and teammate Jarlin Garcia) are trying to get more horizontal movement on the pitch (Read HERE). Also, the league-leading 33 home runs Smith gave up might speak more to the 2019 baseball than his talents as a pitcher. An extreme fly-ball pitcher (his 26.1% ground ball percentage in 2019 was the lowest in baseball), Smith was not helped by the severe uptick in home runs. Again, maybe the Angels can buy low.

Colorado Rockies: If they trade Nolan Arenado then they’ll be willing open to dealing just about anyone on their roster. There’s already been talk of Jon Gray (mentioned in yesterday’s article) and I would very much enjoy the Angels acquiring his talent. But if Arenado is moved, what about German Marquez or Kyle Freeland? They both regressed quite a bit in 2019 (at least by normal statistics- Freeland dropped a 6.73 ERA just one season after a sizzling 2.85 ERA got him Cy Young votes in 2018!) and what pitcher wouldn’t want to get out of Coors Field? Yet there would be obstacles. First, if the Rockies are trying to contend then they should count on bounce-back seasons from these two very talented pitchers. Also, some teams are smart enough not to sell low. Marquez is signed to a team-friendly deal through 2023, with a team option for 2024 ($16 million with $2.5 million buyout plus increase in pay based on Cy Young voting). Freeland is in his first year of arbitration as a Super-2, but is team controlled through 2024, so add affordable to their list of positive qualities. I think Marquez might be a just a hair outside too expensive in terms of prospects. He has the higher upside of the two and the team friendly deal solidifies how difficult he would be to acquire. Therefore, I’d go after Freeland. He’s not a 6.73 ERA pitcher (maybe not a 2.85 ERA pitcher either…though he did that while pitching at Coors Field, so if nothing else he’s got to be closer to that number). He’s more cost-controlled than a Yu Darvish, but isn’t quite as dependable, so the trade package might look similar, if not a tick less in terms of talent.

San Franicsco Giants: Even after a solid 2019 campaign, Jeff Samardzija would be a buy-low candidate because he’s owed $19.8 million for the 2020 season before hitting free agency. Plus, San Francisco is definitely in asset acquisition mode, not pay 35 year old pitcher mode. They are working toward the future (odd signing of Kevin Gausman, not withstanding). So, the Shark could be had. What about Johnny Cueto? Well, he’s got a lot left on his contract (he’s owed $42 million over the next two seasons, with a team option for $22 million in 2022 that has a $5 million buyout - Yikes). Is he worth it? Maybe, if the Angels don’t have to give much up. Matt Thaiss/Patrick Sandoval or Jose Suarez type combos might be worth trading away for a Cueto gamble. Maybe not. If the Giants ate some of the salary, and the Angels gave up a little more (not Brandon Marsh) then it would make a little more sense. Samardzija would probably be the safer play…though not necessarily worth the effort. You know what, scrap the Giants.

Chicago Cubs: The talk all offseason has been about Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras being traded. While there are other variables at play with those two (Bryant’s arbitration issue and lack of long-term signability; Victor Caratini’s impressive play at catcher last season), the Cubs are looking to shed payroll and retool their roster. With that being said, the pitching staff has to be available too. Yu Darvish, Jose Quintana, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester would all be noticeable upgrades for the Angels. Lester is about to be 36 years old, makes a ton of money and his trending downward. So, he’s out. Jose Quintana isn’t actually that much of an upgrade as he’s only been league average the last three seasons. Plus, he’s a free agent after the 2020 campaign. He’s out. Kyle Hendricks has been amazing since his big league arrival, posting a 132 ERA+ over 966 innings. But, he’s signed to a team-friendly deal and honestly the Angels don’t have the firepower to pull that trade off…or at least they shouldn’t. He’s signed through the 2023 season with an option for 2024 (vesting option that guarantees 2024 season if he places in Top-3 in Cy Young voting in any season; team option otherwise- at $16 million it’ll be an incredible bargain). I would love to have Kyle Hendricks, but this looks highly unlikely. What about Yu Darvish? This makes sense. Now, Darvish does have a full no-trade clause, but that shouldn’t stop the Angels from trying to get him to wave it. He’s owed $81 million over the next four seasons, which is a sizable discount from the Gerrit Cole contracts of the world. So fiscally, he definitely makes sense. After a difficult 2018 season where he only pitched in eight games, Darvish had difficulty getting started in the first half of 2019…but then, out of nowhere, the dominance returned. In 15.1 less innings pitched in the second half of the season, Darvish struck out seven more batters than before the All-Star game. He did average giving up more than one home run per start, but this is minor if his command and execution are where they were in the second half. Would he waive his no-trade clause? Who knows. Do the Angels have the pieces to acquire him? Yes. Brandon Marsh, it’s nice knowing you. Patrick Sandoval/Jose Suarez, it’s been nice knowing you. Matt Thaiss, enjoy Chicago.
Welcome to Anaheim, Mr. Darvish?

Los Angeles Dodgers: They seem to need another starting pitcher but quite clearly don’t value Ross Stripling (120 ERA+ over 287 innings since the start of 2017 season). Why? Not sure. And while he looks to slot in as the fifth starter for 2020, he’ll lose that role once Dustin May is considered ready to go. Plus, he just started arbitration. While he wouldn’t dramatically raise the ceiling for the Angels pitching staff, he most certainly raises the floor…by quite a bit.

The Angels can go high-end with the likes of Mike Clevinger or Yu Darvish. Or, they can solidify the middle of the rotation with a Luke Weaver, Caleb Smith, Kyle Freeland or Ross Stripling level trade. Either way, one more solid major league arm makes this offseason a successful one. Just do it, Billy.