WE SIGNED A PITCHER!!! (Well, the Angels did)

12/20/19 - Jay Sheehy - Founder and Editor-In-Chief 11:15 AM PST

Ladies and gentlemen, Julio Teheran, the Angels #3 Starter

We did it. Well, not “we” necessarily, but the Los Angeles Angels…but maybe, as fans, we are part of the “we” that constitutes the organization. Maybe not. Either way, the Angels signed Julio Teheran yesterday to a one year deal for a reported $9 million. It’s all coming together now.

Almost. We still need an ace.

While Julio Teheran might not be a “major addition” according to some in the baseball community, it still is a major addition for the Los Angeles Angels. Plus, it will have a ripple effect that reshapes the Angels offseason plans going forward.

First off, the lower level flyers have all been removed from consideration. Gio Gonzalez reportedly signed with the Chicago White Sox yesterday so he was already gone. Add Alex Wood, Ivan Nova and Rich Hill to that list as well. It makes no sense to sign players of their ilk after getting an innings eater in Teheran that solidifies that back of the starting rotation.

Hyun-Jin Ryu and Dallas Keuchel are still out there. I’d lean toward Keuchel for health reasons though a healthy Ryu is the superior pitcher. Yet, if Ryu rumors are true (they rarely are), he has a four year deal in hand and is looking for a fifth year. Hard pass.

So let’s look into the avenues the Angels might take in the trade market. Big names like David Price, Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd and Jon Gray have received all the headlines, and rightfully so, but there are other possibilities that the Angels might look into if they are feeling bold, which we’ll look at in my next article. Today, we look at the Big Four.

David Price, Robbie Ray, Matthew Boyd, Jon Gray

Let’s first look into their 2019 numbers as well as their 2017-2019 numbers. While the talent of each pitcher is highly regarded, their are definitely red flags in each of their past performances and/or injury histories. The Angels will surely have to give up their #2 prospect, Brandon Marsh, in any of these deals so it makes sense to realize what the floor and ceiling is for each pitcher coming back in a trade.

David Price (2019): 22 starts, 7-5 W/L, 4.28 ERA (113 ERA+), 107. 1 innings, 3.62 FIP, 1.314 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 9.1 H/9 (career high); IL trips on May 6th and August 8th for left elbow tendinitis and left wrist triangular fibrocartilage (TFCC) cyst, respectively. Shut down after September 1st start.
David Price (2017-2019): 63 starts (68 games), 29-15 W/L, 3.75 ERA (122 ERA+), 358 innings, 3.82 FIP, 1.204 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.59 K/BB, 8.2 H/9; only 11 starts in 2017 because of an elbow injury sustained in spring training kept him out until May 29th. Then, elbow inflammation knocked him out another month and a half before he returned in mid-September as a reliever. Started 30 games in 2018, missing a start for carpal tunnel syndrome (video games, am I right?).

Robbie Ray (2019): 33 starts, 12-8 W/L, 4.34 ERA (103 ERA+), 174 innings, 4.29 FIP, 1.342 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 2.80 K/BB, 7.7 H/9 - Didn’t miss a start but he averaged little more than five innings per start (not always his call, of course).
Robbie Ray (2017-2019): 85 starts, 33-15 W/L, 3.72 ERA (120 ERA+), 460 innings, 4.09 FIP, 1.278 WHIP, 12.1 K/9, 2.75 K/BB, 7.1 H/9; missed five starts in 2017 after being struck in head by line drive. In 2018, Ray missed nine starts due to an oblique injury.

Matthew Boyd (2019): 32 starts, 9-12 W/L, 4.56 ERA (105 ERA+), 185.1 innings, 4.32 FIP, 1.230 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 4.76 K/BB, 8.6 H/9; Boyd’s 11.6 K/9 was a career high; he’d never been over 8.5 K/9 before 2019. He also gave up a league high 39 home runs.
Matthew Boyd (2017-2019): 88 starts (89 games), 24-36 W/L, 4.70 ERA (98 ERA+), 490.2 innings, 4.41 FIP, 1.294 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.29 K/BB, 8.8 H/9. Boyd is a rock starting 33 games in 2017 (eight in Triple-A and twenty-five with the Tigers), 31 in 2018 and 32 in 2019.

Jon Gray (2019): 25 starts, 11-8 W/L, 3.84 ERA (135 ERA+), 150 innings, 4.06 FIP, 1.353 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 2.68 K/BB, 8.8 H/9; a left foot fracture that required surgery ended Gray’s season on August 21st.
Jon Gray (2017-2019): 76 starts (77 games), 33-21 W/L, 4.31 ERA (115 ERA+), 432.2 innings, 3.84 FIP, 1.336 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 3.22 K/BB, 9.2 H/9. Started 20, 31 and 25 games over the last three years. Left foot injuries cost him 11-12 starts in 2017 and 6-8 starts in 2019.

What does it all mean? Well, the first thing it means is David Price hasn’t been a star pitcher for some time. Yeah, he pitched well in the 2018 postseason, but he’s had an assortment of injuries and 122 ERA+ over the last three seasons isn’t worth $31 million a year…or even $25 million. I wouldn’t trade Brandon Marsh for him straight up unless the Red Sox paid half the contract. Robbie Ray sure can miss bats and he’s a good bet to make it to the mound every fifth day. But once he’s there he isn’t going very deep into games. Yet, his 120 ERA+ isn’t much less than Price’s, so for one year he’s probably the better choice. One year, however, isn’t what the Angels should be looking for if they’ll have to give up prospects like Marsh or Patrick Sandoval.

What about Matthew Boyd? Well, Matthew Boyd has never really been good. I get the peripherals are supposed to favor him getting better, and maybe he does get better, but he did give up a league leading 39 home runs in 2019 and has a career ERA of 4.92…am I missing something? Why would it matter if he’s under team control for three more years if for the last three years he has been 2% worse than league average (98 ERA+)? No, no, no, hard pass on Matthew Boyd. And Jon Gray? Yeah, I’ll take some Jon Gray.

Why?

First off, he’s a grinder. Someone who has to pitch at Coors Field as often as he does, and still succeeds, is someone you want on your staff. I know the sabermetric world has killed the WIN, but there is value to a guy who routinely does it. Jon Gray wins. Sure, his WHIP is a little high and he looked lost at certain points during his 2018 season (but that might help us get him for less), but Gray goes out and gets after it. Plus, he is under team control for two more seasons. The left foot injuries would leave me a little bit worried but hopefully those are past him now. He had a 135 ERA+ in 150 innings in 2019, and a 138 ERA+ in 110.1 innings in 2017; he knows how to pitch. Compared to the 105 ERA+ Boyd had in 2019 (a career high), the 103 and 107 ERA+ Ray has had the last two seasons (he did drop a 163 ERA+ in 2017) and the fact that David Price just cannot seem to stay healthy slash costs an absurd amount of money, and for me Gray seems like the best option of the bunch.

But what about not so obvious trade options?

Stay tuned.